The state of Texas has always been a significant player in U.S. presidential elections. Known for its substantial number of electoral votes and a traditionally Republican-leaning electorate, Texas has seen some interesting shifts and patterns in recent election cycles. Let’s delve into the dynamics of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in Texas, and explore what to expect in the 2024 election.


The 2016 Presidential Election



The 2016 presidential election in Texas took place on November 8, 2016. The Republican candidate, Donald Trump, and his running mate, Mike Pence, secured a victory in Texas with a 8.99% margin over the Democratic candidates, Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine. This win awarded Trump 36 out of the 38 allocated Electoral College votes due to two faithless electors, marking Texas as the only state to give Trump fewer electoral votes than it had to offer. Interestingly, one elector cast a vote for Ohio Governor John Kasich, and another for former Congressman Ron Paul, making Paul the oldest individual to ever receive an electoral vote at age 81.


Despite the Republican win, Clinton's performance was notable as she managed to improve on Barack Obama's 2012 numbers, losing Texas by a smaller margin than any Democrat since 1996. Analysts attributed this to Trump’s weaker appeal among college-educated white voters. Trump’s win in Texas was the weakest for a victorious Republican nominee since Richard Nixon’s victory in 1968, making it a notable point in the state’s electoral history.


The 2020 Presidential Election



The 2020 presidential election on November 3 saw Texas voters once again favoring Donald Trump, who won with 52.1% of the vote against Democratic candidate Joe Biden and his running mate, Kamala Harris. Despite Trump’s victory, Biden improved on Clinton’s 2016 performance by 3.24%, securing the highest percentage of votes for a Democratic candidate in Texas since Jimmy Carter in 1976. The margin of victory for Trump was the narrowest for a Republican since 1996, underscoring the state's shifting demographics and political landscape.


One of the most significant developments in 2020 was that the counties containing Texas's five largest cities—Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, and Fort Worth—all voted Democratic simultaneously for the first time since 1964. Voter turnout surged to its highest level since 1992, a year when Texas was a battleground state with two Texans, George H. W. Bush and Ross Perot, on the ballot.


Looking Ahead to the 2024 Presidential Election


With 40 electoral votes up for grabs following the reapportionment from the 2020 census, Texas remains a critical state for both parties. Traditionally a red state, Texas has not voted Democratic in a presidential election since Jimmy Carter in 1976. However, the state’s changing demographics and recent election trends suggest it could be more competitive than in previous years.


The Republican primary, held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024, saw former President Donald Trump securing an easy victory over Nikki Haley, with endorsements from prominent Texas politicians like U.S. Senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz, and Governor Greg Abbott.


While Texas is expected to remain in the Republican column, its increasing competitiveness cannot be overlooked. The leftward trend in the Texas Triangle and the significant voter turnout in recent elections suggest that both parties will need to focus considerable efforts on winning over Texas voters.