The state of Minnesota has played a unique role in recent U.S. presidential elections, consistently demonstrating its distinct political character. With a streak of Democratic presidential victories stretching back to 1976, Minnesota's electoral behavior has been a focal point of analysis for political strategists and analysts. This article examines Minnesota's performance in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and looks ahead to the 2024 election, exploring the state's electoral dynamics and its potential impact on the upcoming race.


2016: A Narrow Democratic Victory


The 2016 presidential election was a historic and contentious race nationwide, with Minnesota emerging as a significant battleground. Minnesota has ten electoral votes, a relatively small number, but their allocation can be critical in a tight race.



Despite Trump's success in flipping several traditionally Democratic Midwestern states, Minnesota remained in the Democratic column. Hillary Clinton won the state with 46.44% of the vote, narrowly defeating Trump, who garnered 44.93%. This slim margin of 1.52% marked the closest presidential election in Minnesota since 1984, when Walter Mondale edged out Ronald Reagan by a mere 0.18%.


Clinton's victory continued Minnesota's streak of Democratic wins, making it the eleventh consecutive presidential election where the state voted for the Democratic candidate. Minnesota's loyalty to the Democratic Party in presidential elections dates back to Richard Nixon's landslide re-election in 1972. Despite this consistency, the 2016 election highlighted a shift as Trump managed to flip nineteen counties that previously voted Democratic, showcasing his appeal in rural areas.


Minnesota also boasted the highest voter turnout in the nation in 2016, with approximately 75% of eligible voters participating. This engagement reflects the state's active and politically aware electorate.


2020: A More Comfortable Democratic Win



Four years later, the 2020 presidential election saw a different dynamic in Minnesota. Before the election, most major news organizations predicted that Minnesota would lean towards Biden. Their projections were accurate, as Biden won the state with 52.40% of the vote compared to Trump's 45.28%, a margin of 7.12%. This was a significant improvement over Clinton's narrow victory in 2016, underscoring Biden's ability to reclaim some of the ground lost to Trump.



Biden's success in Minnesota was largely driven by his strong performance in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. In Hennepin County, home to Minneapolis, Biden's vote share was the highest for any presidential nominee since Republican Theodore Roosevelt in 1904. Additionally, Biden flipped four counties that Trump had won in 2016: Clay, Nicollet, Blue Earth, and Winona, all of which had previously supported Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.


Exit polls revealed that Biden's support was bolstered by 51% of White Minnesotans, 58% of college-educated voters, and 55% of voters from union households. Trump's strength, on the other hand, was concentrated in rural areas, while Biden excelled in urban and suburban regions. Interestingly, Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying several counties that had historically voted Democratic, illustrating the evolving political landscape in Minnesota.


Looking Ahead to 2024


Minnesota is holding its ten electoral votes steady following the 2020 census reapportionment. Despite its consistent Democratic leanings, Minnesota's competitive nature makes it a target for both parties.

Historically, Minnesota has the longest active streak of voting for Democratic presidential nominees, dating back to Richard Nixon's 1972 re-election. However, the margins have often been narrow, and no Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 has secured more than 55% of the vote in the state. The upcoming election will be closely watched, especially considering that Trump narrowly lost Minnesota by just 1.5% in 2016.


Adding to the intrigue, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has qualified for the ballot, potentially shaking up the traditional two-party competition. As both parties strategize to capture Minnesota's votes, the state's role in the 2024 election underscores its significance as a battleground.