2016: A Tight Contest in the Silver State
The 2016 presidential election in Nevada was a closely contested battle between the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and the Democratic nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Held on November 8, 2016, this election saw Nevada's six Electoral College votes come into play.
Clinton won the state with 47.92% of the vote, narrowly edging out Trump, who garnered 45.5%. This slim margin underscored the competitive nature of Nevada's electorate. Despite Clinton's victory, her vote share marked a notable decline from the support Barack Obama received in the state during his 2008 and 2012 campaigns. Trump's overall victory in the national election made him the first Republican since William Howard Taft in 1908 to win the presidency without carrying Nevada, and the first since William McKinley in 1900 to do so without winning Washoe County.
2020: A Continuation of Close Margins
The 2020 presidential election in Nevada, held on November 3, once again demonstrated the state's importance in the national political arena. This time, incumbent President Donald Trump faced off against Democratic nominee Joe Biden, the former Vice President.
Throughout the campaign, polls consistently showed a Biden lead, albeit with a sometimes slender margin. On election day, Biden secured a narrow victory in Nevada with 50.06% of the vote, compared to Trump's 47.67%. This 2.39% margin was slightly smaller than Clinton's 2.42% lead in 2016. Interestingly, Trump improved his performance in Nevada compared to 2016, making it one of only six states where he did so.
Biden's victory was primarily driven by strong support in Clark and Washoe counties, which together constitute nearly 89% of Nevada's population. His success in these areas was attributed to high turnout among minority and union voters, particularly in populous Clark County, home to Las Vegas. Additionally, Biden's backing from the Culinary Union Local 226 played a significant role in his win. Despite the overall Democratic victory, Nevada leaned 2% more Republican than the national average.
2024: The Stage is Set
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, Nevada remains a crucial swing state. Scheduled for November 5, 2024, this election will see voters in Nevada once again choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College. Despite no Republican presidential nominee winning Nevada since George W. Bush's narrow victory in 2004, the state continues to be fiercely contested.
Incumbent Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is running for election, with Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also appearing on the ballot. Interestingly, despite Trump's failure to carry Nevada in his previous campaigns, recent polling suggests he is in a strong position to potentially win the state in 2024. As of the latest polls, Biden has not led Trump in Nevada since October 2023.
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