2016 United States Presidential Election in Idaho
The 2016 United States presidential election in Idaho was a testament to the state's unwavering Republican loyalty. Held on November 8, 2016, this election saw Idaho voters choosing electors for the Electoral College in a nationwide contest.
Idaho, with its four electoral votes, was a predictable win for Trump. The state has a long history of favoring Republican candidates, not having voted for a Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson's narrow victory in 1964. In 2016, Trump secured 59.25% of the vote, while Clinton garnered only 27.48%. Third-party candidate Evan McMullin received 6.75%, making Idaho his second-strongest state after Utah. Notably, Trump’s 59.25% was the lowest for a Republican in Idaho since 1996, and Clinton’s 27.48% was the lowest for a Democrat since 1984.
2020 United States Presidential Election in Idaho
Four years later, the 2020 presidential election reaffirmed Idaho's Republican leanings. On November 3, 2020, Idaho voters once again cast their ballots for the Electoral College.
Trump won Idaho decisively, securing 63.9% of the vote compared to Biden's 33.1%. This was an increase from Trump's 2016 percentage due to the absence of significant third-party candidates like McMullin. However, Trump's margin of victory slightly declined, from 31.8% in 2016 to 30.8% in 2020.
Biden managed to win in three of Idaho's 44 counties: Blaine County, Latah County, and Teton County. Despite losing Ada County, the state’s most populous county and home to Boise, Biden’s performance was notable. He achieved 46.4% of the vote in Ada County, the highest for a Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1940.
Exit polls highlighted that Trump's strength in Idaho stemmed from white voters, especially in rural areas, who made up 91% of the electorate and supported Trump by a margin of 64% to 32%. Trump also enjoyed substantial support from Caucasian Protestants, who backed him with 71% of their vote.
Looking Ahead: 2024 United States Presidential Election in Idaho
As we approach the 2024 presidential election, scheduled for November 5, Idaho's political landscape is expected to remain largely unchanged. Idaho’s four electoral votes will once again be in play, though the state's deep-rooted conservative values suggest a predictable outcome.
Idaho is characterized by its sparse population, predominantly white demographic, and significant evangelical presence, all of which contribute to its status as a Republican stronghold. Since statehood, only a handful of non-Republicans have won Idaho’s electoral votes, with the last being Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.
Given this history, the Republican candidate, likely Donald Trump, is anticipated to secure a comfortable victory in Idaho in 2024. The state’s consistent Republican voting pattern and the absence of significant demographic or political shifts suggest that Idaho will continue to support the GOP.
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