Utah, a state known for its conservative leanings and significant Mormon population, has played a unique role in recent U.S. presidential elections. Let's explore the intricacies of Utah's voting patterns in the 2016 and 2020 elections, and what we might expect in the upcoming 2024 election.
The 2016 Presidential Election in Utah
The 2016 presidential election was notable for its significant deviation from Utah's traditionally strong Republican support.
In Utah, the election took an interesting turn with the strong third-party showing by Evan McMullin, a Republican-turned-independent candidate. The final results saw Donald Trump securing 45.5% of the vote, the lowest percentage for any Republican since 1992. Hillary Clinton garnered 27.5% of the vote, while McMullin captured a notable 21.5%. This election marked the first time since 1992 that a Republican presidential nominee failed to win a majority in Utah. Trump's victory margin was 18.08 points, the closest a Democrat has come to winning Utah since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.
The 2020 Presidential Election in Utah
Fast forward to 2020, and Utah's electoral dynamics continued to evolve. Utah, with its six electoral votes, was again expected to favor the Republican candidate.
Throughout the campaign, Trump never exceeded 60% in any poll, indicating a potentially closer contest in this Republican stronghold. Ultimately, Trump won Utah with 58.1% of the vote, an improvement from his 2016 performance but still narrow compared to previous Republican nominees. Joe Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's 2016 results, securing the highest percentage for a Democratic nominee in Utah since 1964. Biden's support was particularly strong in Salt Lake County, where he won 53.7%, marking the first outright majority for a Democratic nominee in the county since Johnson.
Looking Ahead: The 2024 Presidential Election in Utah
The state, with its six electoral votes, remains a Republican stronghold, although recent elections have shown a trend towards more competitive races. Former President Donald Trump is running for a second non-consecutive term, while incumbent Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris seeks election. Additionally, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has qualified for the ballot as an independent candidate.
A June 2024 poll suggests that Trump would receive 49% of the vote if the election were held today, with both Kamala Harris and Kennedy Jr. expected to garner 20% each. This indicates a potentially competitive race for second place, reflecting the growing complexity of Utah's electoral dynamics.
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