2016: A Plurality Win for Hillary Clinton



The 2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico saw Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton securing a victory with 48.26% of the vote, compared to Republican nominee Donald Trump's 40.04%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, a former governor of New Mexico, garnered 9.34%—his best performance in any state, highlighting a notable third-party presence. Clinton's margin of victory was 8.2 percentage points, underscoring the state's leaning towards the Democratic Party, largely driven by its significant Hispanic/Latino and Native American populations.


2020: Biden's Dominant Performance



The 2020 election further solidified New Mexico's Democratic inclination. Democratic nominee Joe Biden won the state with 54.29% of the vote, while incumbent President Donald Trump received 43.50%. Biden's 10.79% margin of victory reflected strong support from Latino voters, who comprised a substantial portion of the electorate. According to exit polls, Biden secured 61% of the Latino vote, including 54% of Latinos of Mexican heritage and 70% of Spanish-Americans. Additionally, Biden won key counties such as Bernalillo, Doña Ana, and Santa Fe by significant margins. 


Notably, the 2020 election marked the first time since 1968 that New Mexico voted more Republican than neighboring Colorado. Biden's success without carrying Colfax or Hidalgo counties, and the unique voting pattern of Valencia County, which backed the losing candidate, added to the election's historical significance.


2024: The Path Ahead


Looking ahead to the 2024 election, New Mexico remains a moderately blue state. With its five electoral votes, the state is expected to stay in the Democratic column, given the party's stronghold on statewide offices since 2019 and its consistent wins in presidential elections since 2008. The state's sizeable Latino population, now a plurality, continues to be a pivotal factor in shaping its political landscape.


Incumbent Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is scheduled to run for election, and New Mexico's support will be crucial. If Kamala Harris carries New Mexico while losing the national popular vote, she will join Republican Gerald Ford, who achieved this in 1976, as the only other candidate to do so in the state's history.