North Carolina has played a pivotal role in recent U.S. presidential elections, consistently showcasing its status as a battleground state. Let's delve into the intricacies of the 2016 and 2020 elections, and explore what we might expect in the upcoming 2024 presidential race.


2016 Presidential Election in North Carolina



The 2016 election in North Carolina was marked by a tight race between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. On November 8, 2016, North Carolinians cast their votes, ultimately favoring Trump with 49.83% of the vote. Clinton garnered 46.17%, leading to a 3.66% margin of victory for Trump. This result represented a shift from the 2012 election, where Republican candidate Mitt Romney won the state with a 2.04% margin over Barack Obama.


Despite both Trump and Clinton receiving a lower percentage of votes than their respective parties did in 2012, the overall voter turnout was higher, resulting in more total votes for both candidates. Trump’s victory was bolstered by flipping seven counties that had previously voted Democratic, including Robeson, Richmond, and Gates counties, which hadn't supported a Republican since Richard Nixon in 1972. Clinton, on the other hand, managed to flip only Watauga County, home to Boone.


2020 Presidential Election in North Carolina



The 2020 presidential election continued to highlight North Carolina's status as a highly competitive state. On November 3, 2020, President Trump narrowly secured re-election in North Carolina against Democratic challenger Joe Biden. Trump received 49.93% of the vote, while Biden obtained 48.59%, resulting in a slim margin of 1.34%.


Throughout the campaign, polls suggested a close race, with many predicting a slight edge for Biden. Despite these predictions, Trump’s victory made him the second Republican incumbent to carry North Carolina and lose re-election, following George H. W. Bush in 1992. Notably, Trump’s margin of victory in 2020 was narrower compared to his 3.67% win over Clinton in 2016. North Carolina stood out as the only state Trump won with less than 50% of the vote, emphasizing its critical role in the election dynamics.


Looking Ahead: The 2024 Presidential Election in North Carolina


As we approach the 2024 presidential election, scheduled for November 5, North Carolina remains a key battleground. The state’s political landscape is shaped by its diverse demographics and steady population growth, which have made it a competitive territory since the late 2000s. Historically, North Carolina has been narrowly decided in presidential elections, with margins of less than 4% since 2008 when Barack Obama narrowly won the state.


The 2024 election will see North Carolina with 16 electoral votes, one more than in previous elections due to reapportionment following the 2020 Census. The political climate in North Carolina is nuanced; while Republicans have won the state in presidential elections since 2012, Democratic Governor Roy Cooper has won two consecutive terms. This juxtaposition highlights the state's purple, albeit slightly red, status.


Former President Donald Trump is expected to be the Republican nominee, while Vice President Kamala Harris has stepped into the race following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal on July 21. Additionally, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has garnered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, adding another layer of complexity to the race.


Conclusion


North Carolina's role in the U.S. presidential elections underscores its significance as a swing state. The 2016 and 2020 elections highlighted its competitive nature, with narrow margins and pivotal county flips. As we look forward to the 2024 election, North Carolina will undoubtedly be a focal point for both major parties, with its 16 electoral votes potentially tipping the balance in a closely contested race. The state's evolving political landscape promises yet another intriguing chapter in its electoral history.