A Look at Montana's Role in Recent Presidential Elections: 2016, 2020, and 2024

The state of Montana, nestled in the Mountain West, may be sparsely populated, but it holds significant political weight during presidential elections. Let's take a closer look at Montana's participation in the past three presidential elections: 2016, 2020, and the upcoming 2024 election.

2016 United States Presidential Election in Montana

Trump secured a decisive victory in Montana, garnering 56.17% of the vote compared to Clinton's 35.75%. This 20.4% margin of victory was a notable increase from Mitt Romney's 13.7% margin in 2012 and John McCain's narrow 2.4% win in 2008. Notably, this election underscored Montana's consistent support for Republican candidates, a trend that has been unbroken since 1996. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson also made a strong showing, earning 5.6% of the vote, making Montana his fifth strongest state.

2020 United States Presidential Election in Montana

Trump emerged victorious in Montana, winning 56.9% of the vote against Biden's 40.5%, resulting in a 16.4% margin. While this was a significant lead, it was slightly lower than his 20.4% margin from 2016. Montana remained a stronghold for Trump, with most news organizations predicting a secure win for the Republican incumbent. Despite his loss in the state, Biden managed to flip Blaine County, home to the Fort Belknap Indian Reservation, and narrow Trump's margins in 31 other counties, including Lewis and Clark (the state capital, Helena) and Roosevelt. Biden also improved upon Clinton's margins in every county she won in 2016.

Looking Ahead: 2024 United States Presidential Election in Montana

The upcoming election will see Montana voters once again casting their ballots. This time, Montana will have four electoral votes, an increase resulting from the 2020 United States census.

Historically, Montana has leaned Republican in presidential elections, with the last Democratic win occurring in 1992 when Bill Clinton carried the state. Since then, the state has seen Republicans winning by double-digit margins, with Trump securing 20.4% and 16.4% margins in 2016 and 2020, respectively. Given this trend, Montana is expected to remain a reliably red state in 2024, with the Republican presidential candidate favored to win.