2016: The Trump Surge
The 2016 United States presidential election was a significant event for Alaska, reflecting the state's enduring Republican alignment. On November 8, 2016, Alaska voters cast their ballots in a nationwide election, choosing between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Alaska, with its three electoral votes, played its part in the Electoral College.
Donald Trump secured Alaska with 51.28% of the vote, while Hillary Clinton received 36.55%. This result marked a return to Alaska's historical trend of giving Democrats less than 40% of the vote, with Barack Obama being a rare exception in 2012. Alaska's steadfast Republican preference has been consistent since 1968, with Lyndon B. Johnson being the only Democrat to win the state in 1964.
Interestingly, the 2016 election saw third-party candidates, particularly Libertarian Gary Johnson, making a notable impact. Johnson received 5.88% of the vote, the highest for a Libertarian since 1980 and the best third-party performance since Ralph Nader in 2000.
2020: A Closer Contest
Fast forward to the 2020 election, held on November 3. Incumbent President Donald Trump faced off against Democratic challenger Joe Biden. Despite Alaska's reputation as a reliably red state, the 2020 election saw a more competitive race. Trump won with 52.83% of the vote, while Biden garnered 42.77%, the highest percentage for a Democrat since 1964.
Analysts had suggested Alaska could be competitive, and while it wasn't a swing state, the delayed counting of absentee ballots extended the suspense. Ultimately, Alaska was called for Trump on November 11, marking the closest margin since 1992. Biden's performance highlighted a shift, with a 4.67% swing towards the Democrats compared to 2016.
Looking Ahead to 2024
As we approach the 2024 election on November 5, Alaska remains a point of interest. The state will continue to wield its three electoral votes in the Electoral College. Notably, this election will be the first to implement Measure 2, introducing ranked-choice voting for all statewide general elections.
Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden is running for reelection, aiming to secure a second term. Alaska's historical voting patterns suggest a Republican leaning, but recent trends indicate a less dominant Republican stronghold than in the past. In 2020, Trump won Alaska by a smaller margin compared to previous Republicans, like George W. Bush's 26% victory in 2004.
Moreover, Alaska's political landscape has seen changes with Democrat Mary Peltola representing the state at-large in the U.S. House since September 2022. While Republicans are still favored to carry the state in 2024, the evolving dynamics could lead to interesting developments.
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